Development prospect of PVC
1. Development trend of PVC resin industry
The consumption of PVC resin in China mainly concentrates in South China and East China. Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Jiangsu Province account for about 70.0% of China's total consumption. With the development of central and western regions and the construction of large-scale infrastructure, the consumption of PVC resin in the central and western regions will gradually increase.
2 demand forecast
PVC resin industry is a basic and energy intensive industry, which is greatly affected by demand and energy price, and is also a basic chemical raw material, so it is closely related to economic development.
3 export issues
① Cost barrier
PVC is a basic chemical raw material, and the product difference is small. Under the market pattern of complete competition in China, the cost is the most important factor affecting the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the industry characteristics, raw materials and energy account for a high proportion of product costs. The cost of petroleum ethylene method is mainly affected by oil price; the production cost of the calcium carbide method is mainly affected by the cost of calcium carbide, generally speaking, the cost of calcium carbide accounts for PVC The cost of electricity accounts for about 70% of the cost, and the power cost accounts for about 60% of the cost of calcium carbide. Because of the abundant power resources and relatively low price of electricity in the west of China, compared with the eastern calcium carbide production enterprises, the Western calcium carbide production enterprises have certain advantages in cost. And enterprises with resources and supporting calcium carbide production will build a more solid cost barrier.
② Industrial policy barriers
In order to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the chlor alkali industry and standardize the development of the industry, the national development and Reform Commission formulated and issued the "entry conditions for chlor alkali (caustic soda, PVC) industry" in accordance with the principle of "optimizing layout, orderly development, adjusting structure, saving energy, protecting environment, safe production and technological progress", and has formulated and issued the "access conditions for chlor alkali (caustic soda, PVC) industry" since December 1st, 2007 Implementation from now on: in terms of industrial layout, new chlor alkali production enterprises shall be close to the resource and energy source. In principle, except for relocation enterprises in the eastern region, no new PVC project and alkali burning project shall be built; in terms of technology, it is required that the new and expanded calcium carbide PVC project must be built with the comprehensive utilization of calcium carbide slag to cement and other electric stone slag The access conditions of the new project are also set up from the energy consumption index and environmental protection. The adjustment of industrial policy greatly improves the threshold of capital, technology, talents and resources in chlor alkali industry.
③ Scale barrier
The investment scale of PVC production is large, the fixed cost is high, and the scale benefit is obvious. Large scale enterprises are in a more favorable position in the negotiation with suppliers, which is conducive to reducing the cost of raw materials. The enterprises with large production and sales volume have relatively high market share, have greater market influence and are relatively easier to obtain customers. Once the production and marketing of PVC enterprises reach a large scale, the marginal cost will gradually reduce and enhance the ability of risk resistance.
④ Capital Barrier
Meanwhile, with the increasingly strict supervision of safety and environmental protection, the construction of chlor alkali production units must be equipped with corresponding large environmental protection devices (such as calcium carbide line must be equipped with calcium carbide slag cement plant, etc.), with more capital investment, and most small and medium-sized enterprises are generally unable to bear.
Therefore, the manufacturers that invest in this industry must have strong capital strength and have certain capital barriers.